Can China’s Regional Industrial Chain Innovation and Reform Policy Make the Impossible Triangle of Energy Attainable? A Causal Inference Study on the Effect of Improving Industrial Chain Resilience

Abstract

This study used a double machine learning model (based on the random forest algorithm) and spatial Durbin DIDs model to conduct quasi-natural experiments. The results are as follows: (1) innovation and reform policy regarding regional industrial chains as well as their resilience can significantly and positively address the development of China’s impossible triangle coupling of energy; (2) implementing the innovation and reform policy for regional industrial chains in other regions can have a significant positive spatial transmission effect on the impossible triangle coupling coordinated development of energy in the region; (3) regional industrial chain resilience can produce a significant positive mediating effect between the innovation and reform policy of regional industrial chains and the safety, reliability, and economic feasibility of green and clean energy systems; (4) under the counterfactual framework, the mechanism path “innovation and reform policy of the regional industry chain→regional industry chain resilience→coordination degree of impossible triangle coupling of energy” has significantly positive direct and indirect effects in both the treatment group and the control group. However, “innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→regional industrial chain resilience→the energy sector’s impossible triangle coupling coordination degree” and “innovation and reform policy of the regional industrial chain→leading power of the regional industrial chain→the energy sector’s impossible triangle coupling coordination degree” have significantly positive direct and indirect effects in the treatment group, but only the direct effect is significant in the control group.