A Scenario Simulation of Material Substitution in the Cement Industry under the Carbon Neutral Strategy: A Case Study of Guangdong

Abstract

The Chinese government promises to reach peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. Against this background, achieving emission reduction in the cement industry is in the spotlight. Material substitution is unmistakably an effective means of CO2 emission reduction in cement production. In this paper, the three-scenario analysis approach is employed to forecast the production demand, technology development of raw meal replacement, and clinker substitution in the cement industry to try to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This study established a model by which to simulate the carbon emissions in the cement industry during 2020–2060 to analyze the contribution of emission reduction. Through developing new cement admixtures and improving the pretreatment of alternative calcareous materials, by 2060, under the three carbon neutrality scenarios, the clinker-to-cement ratio (CCR) falls to 0.60, 0.575, and 0.56, respectively, and the percentage of clinker produced from low-carbon raw materials reaches 13%, 17%, and 20%. In addition, the CO2 emission level is down by 57%, 61%, and 63 % in comparison to that of 2020. This study can render practical suggestions for the cement industry to achieve carbon neutrality.