Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on Metabolic Risk Score for Assessing Lymphovascular Space Invasion in Patients with Endometrial Cancer

Abstract

Objective: This study assessed the predictive value of the metabolic risk score (MRS) for lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) in endometrial cancer (EC) patients. Methods: We included 1076 patients who were diagnosed with EC between January 2006 and December 2020 in Peking University People’s Hospital. All patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 2:1. Data on clinicopathological indicators were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to define candidate factors for LVSI. A backward stepwise selection was then used to select variables for inclusion in a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results: Independent predictors of LVSI included differentiation grades (G2: OR = 1.800, 95% CI: 1.050–3.070, p = 0.032) (G3: OR = 3.49, 95% CI: 1.870–6.520, p < 0.001), histology (OR = 2.723, 95% CI: 1.370–5.415, p = 0.004), MI (OR = 4.286, 95% CI: 2.663–6.896, p < 0.001), and MRS (OR = 1.124, 95% CI: 1.067–1.185, p < 0.001) in the training cohort. A nomogram was established to predict a patient’s probability of developing LVSI based on these factors. The ROC curve analysis showed that an MRS-based nomogram significantly improved the efficiency of diagnosing LVSI compared with the nomogram based on clinicopathological factors (p = 0.0376 and p = 0.0386 in the training and validation cohort, respectively). Subsequently, the calibration plot showed a favorable consistency in both groups. Moreover, we conducted a decision curve analysis, showing the great clinical benefit obtained from the application of our nomogram. However, our study faced several limitations. Further external validation and a larger sample size are needed in future studies. Conclusion: MRS-based nomograms are useful for predicting LVSI in patients with EC and may facilitate better clinical decision-making.