PM2.5 Concentrations Variability in North China Explored with a Multi-Scale Spatial Random Effect Model

Abstract

Compiling fine-resolution geospatial PM2.5 concentrations data is essential for precisely assessing the health risks of PM2.5 pollution exposure as well as for evaluating environmental policy effectiveness. In most previous studies, global and local spatial heterogeneity of PM2.5 is captured by the inclusion of multi-scale covariate effects, while the modelling of genuine scale-dependent variabilities pertaining to the spatial random process of PM2.5 has not yet been much studied. Consequently, this work proposed a multi-scale spatial random effect model (MSSREM), based a recently developed fixed-rank Kriging method, to capture both the scale-dependent variabilities and the spatial dependence effect simultaneously. Furthermore, a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted to assess the performance of MSSREM against classic geospatial Kriging models. The key results indicated that when the multiple-scale property of local spatial variabilities were exhibited, the MSSREM had greater ability to recover local- or fine-scale variations hidden in a real spatial process. The methodology was applied to the PM2.5 concentrations modelling in North China, a region with the worst air quality in the country. The MSSREM provided high prediction accuracy, 0.917 R-squared, and 3.777 root mean square error (RMSE). In addition, the spatial correlations in PM2.5 concentrations were properly captured by the model as indicated by a statistically insignificant Moran’s I statistic (a value of 0.136 with p-value > 0.2). Overall, this study offers another spatial statistical model for investigating and predicting PM2.5 concentration, which would be beneficial for precise health risk assessment of PM2.5 pollution exposure.