Comparison of Secular Trends in Esophageal Cancer Mortality in China and Japan during 1990–2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Abstract

Esophageal cancer is a prevalent and often fatal malignancy all over the world, with China and Japan bearing a disproportionately high burden. Consequently, we explored and compared the long-term changes in esophageal cancer mortality in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019 to see if there were any etiological clues. From 1990 to 2019, data on mortality in China and Japan were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for esophageal cancer fell in both nations, with China showing a tremendous reduction after 2005. The overall net drifts per year were more impressive in China (−5.22% [95% CI, −5.77 to −4.68] for females, −1.98% [−2.22 to −1.74] for males) than in Japan (−0.50% [−0.91 to −0.08] for females, −1.86% [−2.12 to −1.59] for males), and the local drift values in both countries were less than zero in all age groups for both sexes. The longitudinal age curves of esophageal cancer mortality increased as age advances and the sex disparity gradually exacerbates with age. The period and cohort effects were uncovered to have similar declining patterns for both sexes in both nations; however, the improvement of cohort effects for China’s younger generation has stagnated. The ASMRs, period effects, and cohort effects have decreased for both countries and sexes over the 1990–2019 period. The decline in cohort effects for China’s younger generation has plateaued, possibly due to the rising rates of smoking and obesity among Chinese youngsters. Comprehensive population-level treatments aimed at smoking cessation, obesity prevention, and gastrointestinal endoscopy screening should be carried out immediately, particularly for men and older birth cohorts at a higher risk of esophageal cancer.