Exploring the Impact of Localized COVID-19 Events on Intercity Mobility during the Normalized Prevention and Control Period in China

Abstract

Uncontrolled, large-scale human mobility can amplify a localized disease into a pandemic. Tracking changes in human travel behavior, exploring the relationship between epidemic events and intercity travel generation and attraction under policies will contribute to epidemic prevention efforts, as well as deepen understanding of the essential changes of intercity interactions in the post-epidemic era. To explore the dynamic impact of small-scale localized epidemic events and related policies on intercity travel, a spatial lag model and improved gravity models are developed by using intercity travel data. Taking the localized COVID-19 epidemic in Xi’an, China as an example, the study constructs the travel interaction characterization before or after the pandemic as well as under constraints of regular epidemic prevention policies, whereby significant impacts of epidemic events are explored. Moreover, indexes of the quantified policies are refined to the city level in China to analyze their effects on travel volumes. We highlight the non-negligible impacts of city events and related policies on intercity interaction, which can serve as a reference for travel management in case of such severe events.