A Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Maritime Shipping Risk Mitigation System by Entropy-Based Capability Degradation Analysis

Abstract

Accurate evaluation of the risk mitigation status of navigating ships is essential for guaranteeing navigational safety. This research mainly focuses on the feasibility and accuracy of evaluating the real effectiveness of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships, including addressing the problem of immeasurableness for risk mitigation capability and determining the degradation regulation of risk mitigation capability over time. The proposed method to solve the problem is an effectiveness evaluation model based on the capability perspective, composed of a capability measurement algorithm based on entropy theory and capability degradation regulation analysis based on numerical process fitting. First, combined with the theoretical framework of a comprehensive defence system, the risk mitigation system designed for navigating ships is reconstructed based on capability building. Second, using a numerical fitting method, the degradation regulation of risk mitigation capability with time is obtained to improve the accuracy of the dynamic evaluation. Finally, referring to entropy theory, the uncertainty of capability is calculated, and then the model is constructed based on this uncertainty to realize the effectiveness evaluation from a capability perspective. The results obtained in an application test of the proposed model indicate that using the entropy of capability can realize an accurate effectiveness evaluation of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships, with a 9% improvement in accuracy, and the Weibull curve fitting is more consistent with capability degradation regulation, with a signification level of 2.5%. The proposed model provides a new path for evaluating the effectiveness of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships from the entropy of capability, and compared with the traditional probabilistic method, the model is more realistic and accurate in actual applications.