Robust Operating Room Scheduling Model with Violation Probability Consideration under Uncertain Surgery Duration

Abstract

This paper proposes an operating room (OR) scheduling model to assign a group of next-day patients to ORs while adhering to OR availability, priorities, and OR overtime constraints. Existing studies usually consider OR scheduling problems by ignoring the influence of uncertainties in surgery durations on the OR assignment. In this paper, we address this issue by formulating accurate patient waiting times as the cumulative sum of uncertain surgery durations from the robust discrete approach point of view. Specifically, by considering the patients’ uncertain surgery duration, we formulate the robust OR scheduling model to minimize the sum of the fixed OR opening cost, the patient waiting penalty cost, and the OR overtime cost. Then, we adopt the box uncertainty set to specify the uncertain surgery duration, and a robustness coefficient is introduced to control the robustness of the model. This resulting robust model is essentially intractable in its original form because there are uncertain variables in both the objective function and constraint. To make this model solvable, we then transform it into a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model by employing the robust discrete optimization theory and the strong dual theory. Moreover, to evaluate the reliability of the robust OR scheduling model under different robustness coefficients, we theoretically analyze the constraint violation probability associated with overtime constraints. Finally, an in-depth numerical analysis is conducted to verify the proposed model’s effectiveness and to evaluate the robustness coefficient’s impact on the model performance. Our analytical results indicate the following: (1) With the robustness coefficient, we obtain the tradeoff relationship between the total management cost and the constraint violation probability, i.e., a smaller robustness coefficient yields remarkably lower total management cost at the expense of a noticeably higher constraint violation probability and vice versa. (2) The obtained total management cost is sensitive to small robustness coefficient values, but it hardly changes as the robustness coefficient increases to a specific value. (3) The obtained total management cost becomes increasingly sensitive to the perturbation factor with the decrease in constraint violation probability.