Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors

Abstract

In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis of modelled CO2 aviation emissions to changes in the model parameters, which is intended as a contribution to the understanding of the atmospheric composition stabilization issue. The two variable dynamic model incorporates the effects of the technological innovations on the emissions rate, the environmental feedback, and a non-linear control term on the passengers rate. The model parameters, estimated from different air traffic sources, are subject to considerable uncertainty. The stability analysis of Monte Carlo simulations revealed that, for certain values of the non-linear term parameter and depending on the type of flight, the passengers number at some equilibrium points exceeded its initial value, while the emissions level was below the initial corresponding one. The results of two global sensitivity analyses indicated that the influence of the non-linear term prevailed on the passengers number rate, followed distantly by the environmental feedback. For the emissions rate, the non-linear term contribution dominated, with the technological term influence placing second.