Increases in Ambulance Call Volume Are an Early Warning Sign of Major COVID-19 Surges in Children

Abstract

Background: Infectious diseases, including COVID-19, have a severe impact on child health globally. We investigated whether emergency medical service (EMS) calls are a bellwether for future COVID-19 caseloads. We elaborated on geographical hotspots and socioeconomic risk factors. Methods: All EMS calls for suspected infectious disease in the pediatric population (under 18 years of age) in Rhode Island between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022 were included in this quasi-experimental ecological study. The first of March 2020 was the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the 2020 census tract and the most recent COVID-19 data. We investigated associations between pediatric EMS calls and positive COVID-19 tests with time series analysis and identified geographical clusters using local indicators of spatial association. Economic risk factors were examined using Poisson regression. Results: We included 980 pediatric ambulance calls. Calls during the omicron wave were significantly associated with increases in positive COVID-19 tests one week later (p < 0.001). Lower median household income (IRR 0.99, 95% CI [0.99, 0.99]; p < 0.001) and a higher child poverty rate (IRR 1.02, 95% CI [1.02, 1.02]; p < 0.001) were associated with increased EMS calls. Neighborhood hotspots changed over time. Conclusion: Ambulance calls might be a predictor for major surges of COVID-19 in children.