Evolutionary Analysis of Prefabrication Implementation in Construction Projects under Low-Carbon Policies

Abstract

In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutral policies, low-carbon construction has been the focus of most countries worldwide. As one of the most effective ways to achieve green construction, many countries have launched low-carbon policies to promote the development of prefabrication. However, the effectiveness and influencing factors of low-carbon policies on prefabrication need to be further verified under the dynamic game between the government and the construction enterprise. Therefore, this study considered subsidy and carbon tax policies and developed an evolutionary game model to promote the development of the prefabricated construction market. The evolutionary stable strategy of the government and construction enterprise under different scenarios was obtained. Subsequently, a numerical analysis was conducted to further investigate the impact of the key factors on the stable strategy. The results showed that an appropriate hybrid policy of subsidies and taxes could positively promote the prefabrication implementation of the construction enterprise. The government should adopt an appropriate policy intensity according to the maturity of the market. This study can provide effective guidance and practical enlightenment for the government to achieve low-carbon, green, and sustainable construction.