The Dynamic Evolution of Global Energy Security and Geopolitical Games: 1995~2019

Abstract

Under the influence of economic globalization, the internationalization trend of energy security issues has become increasingly prominent. This paper adopts the natural discontinuity grading method to classify the energy security status of 102 countries into five categories: Best, Better, Good, Poor and Worse types; reveals the dynamic evolution characteristics and main formation mechanisms of world energy security; and puts forward the game focus of future energy geopolitics. The results show that: (1) during 1995–2019, global energy security presents local turbulence and an overall “J” shaped trend; (2) the global energy security pattern coincides with the international geopolitical order. The countries with the “Best” energy security are found in Western Europe and North America while the countries with “Poor” or “Worse” energy security are located in Asia and the less developed regions of Africa; (3) the main reason why developed economies have better energy security is due to their high energy use efficiency, while developing countries lag behind mainly because of their lower innovation capacity, lower productivity and lower disposable income; and (4) the global energy security landscape is expected to be affected by the changing US–China relationship, coercive energy transition and the uncertainty of the political environment.