Evaluation and Prediction of Low-Carbon Economic Efficiency in China, Japan and South Korea: Based on DEA and Machine Learning

Abstract

Addressing global climate change has become a broad consensus in the international community. Low-carbon economic development, as an effective means to address global climate change issues, has been widely explored and practiced by countries around the world. As major carbon emitting countries, there has been much focus on China, Japan and South Korea, and it is of practical significance to study their low-carbon economic development. To further measure their trend of low-carbon economic development, this paper firstly constructs a low-carbon economic efficiency evaluation index system and uses the Slack Based Measure (SBM) model. This is a kind of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, with undesirable output based on global covariance to measure the low-carbon economic efficiency of 94 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) in China, Japan, and South Korea from 2013 to 2019. Subsequently, this paper uses 10 mainstream machine learning models and combining them with Grid Search with Cross Validation (GridSearchCV) methods, selects the machine learning model with the best prediction effect. The model predicts the low-carbon economic efficiency of PLADs in China, Japan, and South Korea from 2020 to 2024 based on the parameter configuration for the best prediction effect. Finally, according to the research results, this paper proposes targeted advice for regionalized cooperation on low-carbon economic development in China, Japan, and South Korea to jointly address global climate change issues.