Short-Term Effects of Low-Level Ambient Air NO2 on the Risk of Incident Stroke in Enshi City, China

Abstract

Previous studies found that exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with an increased risk of incident stroke, but few studies have been conducted for relatively low NO2 pollution areas. In this study, the short-term effects of NO2 on the risk of incident stroke in a relatively low-pollution area, Enshi city of Hubei Province, China, were investigated through time-series analysis. Daily air-pollution data, meteorological data, and stroke incidence data of residents in Enshi city from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 were collected. A time-series analysis using a generalised additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution was applied to explore the short-term effects of low-level NO2 exposure on the risk of incident stroke and stroke subtypes, as well as possible age, sex, and seasonal differences behind the effects. In the GAM model, potential confounding factors, such as public holidays, day of the week, long-term trends, and meteorological factors (temperature and relative humidity), were controlled. A total of 9122 stroke incident cases were included during the study period. We found that NO2 had statistically significant effects on the incidence of stroke and ischemic stroke, estimated by excess risk (ER) of 0.37% (95% CI: 0.04–0.70%) and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.18–0.98%), respectively. For the cumulative lag effects, the NO2 still had a statistically significant effect on incident ischemic stroke, estimated by ER of 0.61% (95% CI: 0.01–1.21%). The two-pollutant model showed that the effects of NO2 on incident total stroke were still statistically significant after adjusting for other air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and O3). In addition, the effects of NO2 exposure on incident stroke were statistically significant in elderly (ER = 0.75%; 95% CI: 0.11–1.40%), males (ER = 0.47%; 95% CI: 0.05–0.89%) and cold season (ER = 0.83%; 95% CI: 0.15–1.51%) subgroups. Our study showed that, as commonly observed in high-pollution areas, short-term exposure to low-level NO2 was associated with an increased risk of incident stroke, including ischemic stroke. Males and elderly people were more vulnerable to the effects of NO2, and the adverse effects might be promoted in the cold season.