Projecting Lifetime Health Outcomes and Costs Associated with the Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure among Adult Women in Korea

Abstract

We sought to estimate the lifetime healthcare costs and outcomes associated with the exposure to the escalated concentration of fine particulate matter (particle size < 2.5 μm, PM2.5) among adult Korean women. We adapted a previously developed Markov model, and a hypothetical cohort composed of Korean women was exposed to either a standard (15 μg/m3) or increased (25 μg/m3) concentration of PM2.5. The time horizon of the analysis was 60 years, and the cycle length was 1 year. The outcomes were presented as direct healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs were discounted annually at 5%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The model estimated that when the exposure concentration was increased by 10 μg/m3, the lifetime healthcare cost increased by USD 9309, which is an 11.3% increase compared to the standard concentration group. Women exposed to a higher concentration of PM2.5 were predicted to live 30.64 QALYs, compared to 32.08 QALYs for women who were exposed to the standard concentration of PM2.5. The tendency of a higher cost and shorter QALYs at increased exposure was consistent across a broad range of sensitivity analyses. The negative impact of PM2.5 was higher on cost than on QALYs and accelerated as the exposure time increased, emphasizing the importance of early intervention.