Effect of Nucleic Acid Screening Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Cities of Different Scales and Assessment of Related Testing Resource Demands—Evidence from China

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is in its epidemic period, and China is still facing the dual risks of import and domestic rebound. To better control the COVID-19 pandemic under the existing conditions, the focus of this study is to simulate the nucleic acid testing for different population size cities in China to influence the spread of COVID-19, assess the situation under different scenarios, the demand for the laboratory testing personnel, material resources, for the implementation of the nucleic acid screening measures, emergency supplies, and the configuration of human resources to provide decision-making basis. Methods: According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and the current prevention and control strategies in China, four epidemic scenarios were assumed. Based on the constructed SVEAIiQHR model, the number of people infected with COVID-19 in cities with populations of 10 million, 5 million, and 500,000 was analyzed and predicted under the four scenarios, and the demand for laboratory testing resources was evaluated, respectively. Results: For large, medium, and small cities, whether full or regional nucleic acid screening can significantly reduce the epidemic prevention and control strategy of different scenarios laboratory testing resource demand difference is bigger, implement effective non-pharmaceutical interventions and regional nucleic acid screening measures to significantly reduce laboratory testing related resources demand, but will cause varying degrees of inspection staff shortages. Conclusion: There is still an urgent need for laboratory testing manpower in China to implement effective nucleic acid screening measures in the event of an outbreak. Cities or regions with different population sizes and levels of medical resources should flexibly implement prevention and control measures according to specific conditions after the outbreak, assess laboratory testing and human resource need as soon as possible, and prepare and allocate materials and personnel.