A Global Sharing Mechanism of Resources: Modeling a Crucial Step in the Fight against Pandemics

Abstract

To face crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, resources such as personal protection equipment (PPE) are needed to reduce the infection rate and protect those in close contact with patients. The increasing demand for those products can, together with pandemic-related disruptions in the global supply chain, induce major local resource scarcities. During the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed a reflex of ‘our people first’ in many regions. In this paper, however, we show that a cooperative sharing mechanism can substantially improve the ability to face epidemics. We present a stylized model in which communities share their resources such that each can receive them whenever a local epidemic flares up. Our main finding is that cooperative sharing can prevent local resource exhaustion and reduce the total number of infected cases. Crucially, beneficial effects of sharing are found for a large range of possible community sizes and cooperation combinations, not only for small communities being helped by large communities. Furthermore, we show that the success of sharing resources heavily depends on having a sufficiently long delay between the onsets of epidemics in different communities. These results thus urge for the pairing of a global sharing mechanism with measures to slow down the spread of infections from one community to the other. Our work uses a stylized model to convey an important and clear message to a broad public, advocating that cooperative sharing strategies in international resource crises are the most beneficial strategy for all. It stresses essential underlying principles of and contributes to designing a resilient global supply chain mechanism able to deal with future pandemics by design, rather than being subjected to the coincidental and unequal distribution of opportunities per community that we see at present.