Underestimated Risk Perception Characteristics of Drivers Based on Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

Abstract

Aggressive driving behaviors due to drivers’ underestimation of risks are one of the major causes of traffic accidents. Due to the complexity of factors influencing risk perception, the mechanism of risk underestimation remains unclear. In this study, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was extended by adding a new variable, namely drivers’ normlessness, forming an extended TPB (ETPB) framework to analyze the factors influencing risk underestimation and the extent of their influence. A total of 376 drivers’ perceived characteristics of risk underestimation were collected through an online survey, and a structural equation model was applied to investigate the effects of normlessness, behavioral attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control on the tendency to underestimate the risk. The results showed that the ETPB model can explain the variance in the underestimation risk behavior by 69%; perceptual behavior control, attitude, and subjective norm (in descending order) had significant positive effects on driver’s tendency to underestimate risk; the normlessness variable can directly promote attitude and underestimated risk behavior; drivers with low annual mileage, complete insurance coverage, and no prior accident experience were more likely to underestimate driving risk. The study contributes to understanding of risk perception characteristics and provide theoretical basis for reducing underestimated risk behavior.