Obesity, Burden of Ischemic Heart Diseases and Their Ecological Association: The Case of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Ischemic heart diseases are the leading cause of death in Uzbekistan. There are numerous risk factors affecting ischemic heart disease, and obesity is one of the major independent risk factors. This study is the first attempt to estimate the ecological association between obesity prevalence and the burden of ischemic heart disease between 1990 and 2019 in Uzbekistan. To define the prevalence of all obesity types, death, and incidences of ischemic heart disease for certain periods, the Joinpoint regression tool was used. A separate linear regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between obesity and ischemic heart disease mortality and morbidity. A positive linear relation was found between the prevalence of obesity types and incidence/death rates for both sexes (r = 0.59–0.87). All types of obesity were highly significant positive predictors of incidence of and death from ischemic heart disease (p < 0.0001). The slope (B1) suggested that for an increment in obesity prevalence of 1% among adults aged over 20, the incidence of ischemic heart disease increased by 40.2 (p < 0.0001) and 38.3 (p < 0.0001) per 100,000 persons for men and women, respectively. The current country-level conclusions are valuable, because it allows decision makers to draw specific conclusions, applicable at the state and local level for policymaking.