Spatiotemporal Analysis for COVID-19 Delta Variant Using GIS-Based Air Parameter and Spatial Modeling

Abstract

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is currently a global challenge, with 210 countries, including Indonesia, seeking to minimize its spread. Therefore, this study aims to determine the spatiotemporal spread pattern of this virus in Surabaya using various data on confirmed cases from 28 April to 26 October 2021. It also aims to determine the relationship between pollutant parameters, such as carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3), as well as the government’s high social restrictions policy in Java-Bali. Several methods, such as the weighted mean center, directional distribution, Getis–Ord Gi*, Moran’s I, and geographically weighted regression, were used to identify the spatial spread pattern of the virus. The weighted mean center indicated that the epicenter location of the outbreak moved randomly. The directional distribution demonstrated a decrease of 21 km2 at the end of the study phase, which proved that its spread has significantly reduced in Surabaya. Meanwhile, the Getis–Ord Gi* results demonstrated that the eastern and southern parts of the study region were highly infected. Moran’s I demonstrate that COVID-19 cases clustered during the spike. The geographically weighted regression model indicated a number of influence zones in the northeast, northwest, and a few in the southwest parts at the peak of R2 0.55. The relationship between COVID-19 cases and air pollution parameters proved that people living at the outbreak’s center have low pollution levels due to lockdown. Furthermore, the lockdown policy reduced CO, NO2, SO2, and O3. In addition, increase in air pollutants; namely, NO2, CO, SO2 and O3, was recorded after 7 weeks of lockdown implementation (started from 18 August).