Computation of the Distribution of the Sum of Independent Negative Binomial Random Variables

Abstract

The distribution of the sum of negative binomial random variables has a special role in insurance mathematics, actuarial sciences, and ecology. Two methods to estimate this distribution have been published: a finite-sum exact expression and a series expression by convolution. We compare both methods, as well as a new normalized saddlepoint approximation, and normal and single distribution negative binomial approximations. We show that the exact series expression used lots of memory when the number of random variables was high (>7). The normalized saddlepoint approximation gives an output with a high relative error (around 3–5%), which can be a problem in some situations. The convolution method is a good compromise for applied practitioners, considering the amount of memory used, the computing time, and the precision of the estimates. However, a simplistic implementation of the algorithm could produce incorrect results due to the non-monotony of the convergence rate. The tolerance limit must be chosen depending on the expected magnitude order of the estimate, for which we used the answer generated by the saddlepoint approximation. Finally, the normal and negative binomial approximations should not be used, as they produced outputs with a very low accuracy.