Estimating and Interpreting Fine-Scale Gridded Population Using Random Forest Regression and Multisource Data

Abstract

Gridded population results at a fine resolution are important for optimizing the allocation of resources and researching population migration. For example, the data are crucial for epidemic control and natural disaster relief. In this study, the random forest model was applied to multisource data to estimate the population distribution in impervious areas at a 30 m spatial resolution in Chongqing, Southwest China. The community population data from the Chinese government were used to validate the estimation accuracy. Compared with the other regression techniques, the random forest regression method produced more accurate results (R2 = 0.7469, RMSE = 2785.04 and p < 0.01). The points of interest (POIs) data played a more important role in the population estimation than the nighttime light images and natural topographical data, particularly in urban settings. Our results support the wide application of our method in mapping densely populated cities in China and other countries with similar characteristics.