Predictive Model for High Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Young Patients with Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease is a major complication of chronic kidney disease. The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a surrogate marker for the risk of coronary artery disease. The purpose of this study is to predict outcomes for non-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients under the age of 60 with high CAC scores using machine learning techniques. We developed the predictive models with a chronic kidney disease representative cohort, the Korean Cohort Study for Outcomes in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease (KNOW-CKD). We divided the cohort into a training dataset (70%) and a validation dataset (30%). The test dataset incorporated an external dataset of patients that were not included in the KNOW-CKD cohort. Support vector machine, random forest, XGboost, logistic regression, and multi-perceptron neural network models were used in the predictive models. We evaluated the model’s performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Shapley additive explanation values were applied to select the important features. The random forest model showed the best predictive performance (AUROC 0.87) and there was a statistically significant difference between the traditional logistic regression model and the test dataset. This study will help identify patients at high risk of cardiovascular complications in young chronic kidney disease and establish individualized treatment strategies.