Electrical Power Generation Forecasting from Renewable Energy Systems Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Abstract

Renewable energy (RE) sources, such as wind, geothermal, bioenergy, and solar, have gained interest in developed regions. The rapid expansion of the economies in the Middle East requires massive increases in electricity production capacity, and currently fossil fuel reserves meet most of the power station demand. There is a considerable measure of unpredictability surrounding the locations of the concerned regions where RE can be used to generate electricity. This makes forecasting difficult for the investor to estimate future electricity production that could be generated in each area over the course of a specific period. Energy production forecasting with complex time-series data is a challenge. However, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are well suited for handling nonlinearity effectively. This research aims to investigate the various ANN models capable of providing reliable predictions for sustainable sources of power such as wind and solar. In addition to the ANN models, a state-of-the-art ensemble learning approach is used to improve the accuracy of predictions further. The proposed strategies can forecast RE generation accurately over short and long time frames, relying on historical data for precise predictions. This work proposes a new hybrid ensemble framework that strategically combines multiple complementary machine learning (ML) models to improve RE forecasting accuracy. The ensemble learning (EL) methodology outperforms long short-term memory (LSTM), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and sequenced-GRU in predicting wind power (MAE: 0.782, MAPE: 0.702, RMSE: 0.833) and solar power (MAE: 1.082, MAPE: 0.921, RMSE: 1.055). It achieved an impressive R2 value of 0.9821, indicating its superior accuracy.