A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting

Abstract

Mortality improvements and life expectancies have been increasing in recent decades, leading to growing interest in understanding mortality risk and longevity risk. Studies of mortality forecasting are of interest among actuaries and demographers because mortality forecasting can quantify mortality and longevity risks. There is an abundance of literature on the topic of modelling and forecasting mortality, which often leads to confusion in determining a particular model to be adopted as a reliable tool. In this study, we conducted a bibliometric analysis with a focus on citation and co-citation analyses and co-occurrences of keywords to determine the most widely used stochastic mortality model. We found that the Lee–Carter model has remained one of the most relevant mortality models since its development in the 1990s. Furthermore, we also aimed to identify emerging topics and trends relating to mortality modelling and forecasting based on an analysis of authors’ keywords. This study contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive overview and evolution of publications in stochastic mortality modelling and forecasting. Researchers can benefit from the present work in determining and exploring emerging trends and topics for future studies.