Analysis of the Spatial Variations of Determinants of Gully Agricultural Production Transformation in the Chinese Loess Plateau and Its Policy Implications

Abstract

Exploring the gully agricultural production transformation and its influencing factors is of considerable significance to the evolution of the human–land relationship and multifunctional transformation of gully agriculture in the context of new development. This paper tries to reveal intensive land use under the background of population contraction in the Chinese Loess Plateau and its transformation trend by defining the gully agricultural production transformation (GAPT). Given the representativeness of land-use change in the loess hilly and gully region (LHGR) was taken as a case study, and ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) were used to detect the spatio-temporal differentiation pattern and influencing factors. The results show that: (1) GAPT shifts from the high elevation area of 1000–1300 m to the low elevation area of <1000 m, and the transformation process remains within the range of slope 0–20° and topographic relief between 40 m and 180 m. (2) GTWR coupled with time non-stationary and spatial heterogeneity has a better fitting effect, which verifies its applicability in the study of GAPT. Social and economic factors were the main driving forces of GAPT in Yan’an City in the past 20 years, and they were increasing year by year. (3) The spatial-temporal distribution of the driving factors of the agricultural production transformation in Yan’an City is different. The intensity of the population factor and the slope factor is always in the dominant position, and the high value distribution area of the land average GDP factor forms a funnel-shaped pattern of “core edge” in the north and the central and western regions, and its changes tend to “flow” to the core. (4) The gully agricultural production transformation can reflect the general law of rural land use transition in gully areas, and thereby provide policy ideas for gully development. Overall, this study’s content can provide scientific guidance for the sustainable development of gully agriculture and the revitalization of watershed and land consolidation in gully areas.