Intraoperative Hypotension Prediction Model Based on Systematic Feature Engineering and Machine Learning

Abstract

Arterial hypotension is associated with incidence of postoperative complications, such as myocardial infarction or acute kidney injury. Little research has been conducted for the real-time prediction of hypotension, even though many studies have been performed to investigate the factors which affect hypotension events. This forecasting problem is quite challenging compared to diagnosis that detects high-risk patients at current. The forecasting problem that specifies when events occur is more challenging than the forecasting problem that does not specify the event time. In this work, we challenge the forecasting problem in 5 min advance. For that, we aim to build a systematic feature engineering method that is applicable regardless of vital sign species, as well as a machine learning model based on these features for real-time predictions 5 min before hypotension. The proposed feature extraction model includes statistical analysis, peak analysis, change analysis, and frequency analysis. After applying feature engineering on invasive blood pressure (IBP), we build a random forest model to differentiate a hypotension event from other normal samples. Our model yields an accuracy of 0.974, a precision of 0.904, and a recall of 0.511 for predicting hypotensive events.