Merit Order Effect Modeling: The Case of the Hellenic Electricity Market

Abstract

A simple effective model is proposed for the day-ahead electricity market. The model considers the main factors which govern the process, predicts the seasonal and daily variation of electricity demand, renewable production, system marginal price, and merit order effect. The accuracy of the model is increased by fitting to historic data of the Hellenic electricity market. During the period between October 2016 and December 2018, the Hellenic electricity market calculated explicitly the merit order effect using an innovative mechanism to directly charge the electricity suppliers (retailers). On the basis of the proposed model and the market recorded data, the effect of the renewable penetration on the wholesale Hellenic electricity prices is revealed. The model is further used to analyze the market future behavior when basic factors (electricity demand, conventional power, and renewable penetration) are known or estimated. The effect of merit order effect on the Hellenic legislation is discussed and the appropriate measures adopted by the Hellenic authorities are analyzed and evaluated.