Modelling Debris Flow Runout: A Case Study on the Mesilau Watershed, Kundasang, Sabah

Abstract

Debris flows are among the fatal geological hazards in Malaysia, with 23 incidents recorded in the last two decades. To date, very few studies have been carried out to understand the debris flow processes, causes, and runouts nationwide. This study simulated the debris flow at the Mesilau watershed of Kundasang Sabah caused by the prolonged rainfall after the 2015 Ranau earthquake. Several interrelated processing platforms, such as ArcGIS, HEC-HMS, and HyperKANAKO, were used to extract the parameters, model the debris flow, and perform a sensitivity analysis to achieve the best-fit debris flow runout. The debris flow travelled at least 18.6 km to the Liwagu Dam. The best-fit runout suggested that the average velocity was 12.5 m/s and the lead time to arrive at the Mesilau village was 4.5 min. This high debris flow velocity was probably due to the high-water content from the watershed baseflow with a discharge rate of 563.8 m3/s. The flow depth and depositional thickness were both lower than 5.0 m. This study could provide crucial inputs for designing an early warning system, improving risk communication, and strengthening the local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategy in a tectonically active area in Malaysia.