Predicting Mortality Using Machine Learning Algorithms in Patients Who Require Renal Replacement Therapy in the Critical Care Unit

Abstract

Background: General severity of illness scores are not well calibrated to predict mortality among patients receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) for acute kidney injury (AKI). We developed machine learning models to make mortality prediction and compared their performance to that of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and HEpatic failure, LactatE, NorepInephrine, medical Condition, and Creatinine (HELENICC) scores. Methods: We extracted routinely collected clinical data for AKI patients requiring RRT in the MIMIC and eICU databases. The development models were trained in 80% of the pooled dataset and tested in the rest of the pooled dataset. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of four machine learning models (multilayer perceptron [MLP], logistic regression, XGBoost, and random forest [RF]) to that of the SOFA, nonrenal SOFA, and HELENICC scores and assessed calibration, sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predicted values, and accuracy. Results: The mortality AUC of machine learning models was highest for XGBoost (0.823; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.791–0.854) in the testing dataset, and it had the highest accuracy (0.758). The XGBoost model showed no evidence of lack of fit with the Hosmer–Lemeshow test (p > 0.05). Conclusion: XGBoost provided the highest performance of mortality prediction for patients with AKI requiring RRT compared with previous scoring systems.