Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Dengue Incidence in Medan City, North Sumatera, Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue has been a perennial public health problem in Medan city, North Sumatera, despite the widespread implementation of dengue control. Understanding the spatial and temporal pattern of dengue is critical for effective implementation of dengue control strategies. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology and spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Medan City, Indonesia. Data on dengue incidence were obtained from January 2016 to December 2019. Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistic was used to identify dengue clusters. The Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran’s I statistics were used for further characterisation of dengue hotspots and cold spots. Results: A total of 5556 cases were reported from 151 villages across 21 districts in Medan City. Annual incidence in villages varied from zero to 439.32 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to Kulldorf’s space-time scan statistic, the most likely cluster was located in 27 villages in the south-west of Medan between January 2016 and February 2017, with a relative risk (RR) of 2.47. Getis-Ord Gi* and LISA statistics also identified these villages as hotpot areas. Significant space-time dengue clusters were identified during the study period. These clusters could be prioritized for resource allocation for more efficient prevention and control of dengue.