Risk Mapping of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Spatial Regression Model for Attica Region, Greece

Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic to the Attica region of Greece. The geographical distribution of VL cases was analyzed employing methods of spatial analysis in a GIS environment. A geographic database was constructed including data for the disease cases and environmental factors, such as land cover types, stray dog population, and socioeconomic factors. Classic and spatial regression models are presented that suggest the factors contributing most to the incidence of leishmaniasis are green urban areas and the population of stray dogs in the municipalities of Attica region. The results of the spatial regression model were more accurate, thus were used to produce a disease risk map. This map indicates the high-risk municipalities in which surveillance for the control of leishmaniasis is necessary.