Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract

Malaria is a constant reminder of the climate change impacts on health. Many studies have investigated the influence of climatic parameters on aspects of malaria transmission. Climate conditions can modulate malaria transmission through increased temperature, which reduces the duration of the parasite’s reproductive cycle inside the mosquito. The rainfall intensity and frequency modulate the mosquito population’s development intensity. In this study, the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) was used to simulate the spatiotemporal variation of malaria incidence in Senegal. The simulations were based on the WATCH Forcing Data applied to ERA-Interim data (WFDEI) used as a point of reference, and the biased-corrected CMIP6 model data, separating historical simulations and future projections for three Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Our results highlight a strong increase in temperatures, especially within eastern Senegal under the SSP245 but more notably for the SSP585 scenario. The ability of the LMM model to simulate the seasonality of malaria incidence was assessed for the historical simulations. The model revealed a period of high malaria transmission between September and November with a maximum reached in October, and malaria results for historical and future trends revealed how malaria transmission will change. Results indicate a decrease in malaria incidence in certain regions of the country for the far future and the extreme scenario. This study is important for the planning, prioritization, and implementation of malaria control activities in Senegal.