Trends of HIV Mortality between 2001 and 2018: An Observational Analysis

Abstract

Since the beginning of the epidemic in the early 1980s, HIV-related illnesses have led to the deaths of over 32.7 million individuals. The objective of this study was to describe current mortality rates for HIV through an observational analysis of HIV mortality data from 2001 to 2018 from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database. We computed age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100,000 people using the World Standard Population. We plotted trends using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS). Data for females were available for 42 countries. In total, 31/48 (64.60%) and 25/42 (59.52%) countries showed decreases in mortality in males and females, respectively. South Africa had the highest ASDRs for both males (467.7/100,000) and females (391.1/100,000). The lowest mortalities were noted in Egypt for males (0.2/100,000) and in Japan for females (0.01/100,000). Kyrgyzstan had the greatest increase in mortality for males (+6998.6%). Estonia had the greatest increase in mortality for females (+5877.56%). The disparity between Egypt (the lowest) and South Africa (the highest) was 3042-fold for males. Between Japan and South Africa, the disparity was 43,454-fold for females. Although there was a decrease in mortality attributed to HIV among most of the countries studied, a rising trend remained in a number of developing countries.