Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling

Abstract

Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus’ novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia’s eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.