Simulation of the Progression of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Northwest Syria Using a Basic and Adjusted SIR Model

Abstract

Syria has experienced armed conflict since 2011, and the provision of health care has been severely compromised due to the hostilities. At the time of writing, Northwest Syria (NWS) was outside governmental control and faced the challenges of the COVID-19 outbreak. Since the emergence of this disease, several studies have looked at the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, predicted its progression, and determined the impact of different preventive measures. While most of these studies’ settings were in stable contexts, this study investigated the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northwest Syria, a conflict-affected region, for nine months (from July 2020 to March 2021) using the Suspected-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. We adjusted the SIR model to study the impact of wearing facial masks on the outbreak dynamics and progression. Based on available data and using the basic and adjusted SIR models, we estimated the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), which provides an initial prediction of disease progression. Using the basic SIR model, the estimated R0 for the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Northwest Syria was 2.38. The resulting figures were overestimated in comparison with the reported numbers and data on the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the results were significantly reasonable when we adjusted the model for a preventive measure (in this case, wearing face masks). Face masks, the most available preventive measure to be applied in emergency and conflict settings, remarkably affect the outbreak dynamics and may play a key role in controlling and limiting the spread of COVID-19. The novelty of the study is provided by simulating the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in conflict settings, as it is the first study to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 disease in NWS by adjusting for face-mask-wearing as a preventive measure to explore its impact on outbreak dynamics.