A Dual-Stage Attention-Based Vehicle Speed Prediction Model Considering Driver Heterogeneity with Fuel Consumption and Emissions Analysis

Abstract

With the development of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), personalized driving systems are receiving more and more attention, and the development of advanced systems cannot be separated from the practical exploration of drivers’ heterogeneous driving behaviors. An important foundation for subsequent driver-targeted research is how to mine the key influencing factors that characterize drivers through real driving data and how to appropriately classify drivers as a whole. This study took heterogeneous drivers as the object, based on a dual-stage attention-based vehicle speed prediction model, and carried out research on the speed prediction of traffic flow and the impact of fuel consumption and emissions in the car-following state considering the heterogeneity of drivers. Specifically, first, Spearman’s correlation analysis and K-means clustering were used to classify different types of drivers. Then, speed predictions for different types of drivers were separated via the dual-stage attention-based encoder–decoder (DAED) model and the prediction results between models and drivers were compared. Finally, the heterogeneous drivers’ fuel consumption and emissions were further analyzed via the VT-micro model. The results show that the proposed speed prediction model can effectively discriminate the influences of heterogeneous drivers on the prediction model, and the aggressive type presents the best effect. In addition, from the experiments on traffic fuel consumption and emissions, it can be concluded that the timid driver is the friendliest to the environment. By researching individual drivers’ driving characteristics, this study may help sustainable development in traffic management.