The Fate of Stationary Tools for Environmental Flow Determination in a Context of Climate Change

Abstract

Environmental flows (eflows) refer to the amount of water required to sustain aquatic ecosystems. In its formal definition, three flow characteristics need to be minimally maintained: quantity, timing and quality. This overview paper highlights the challenges of some of the current methods used for eflow determination in the context of an evolving climate. As hydrological methods remain popular, they are first analyzed by describing some of the potential caveats associated with their usage when flow time series are non-stationarity. The timing of low-flow events will likely change within a season but will also likely shift in seasonality in some regions. Flow quality is a multi-faceted concept. It is proposed that a first simple step to partly incorporate flow quality in future analyses is to include the water temperature as a covariate. Finally, holistic approaches are also critically revisited, and simple modifications to the Ecological Limits of Flow Alteration (ELOHA) framework are proposed.