Identifying Degraded and Sensitive to Desertification Agricultural Soils in Thessaly, Greece, under Simulated Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

The impact of simulated future climate change on land degradation was assessed in three representative study sites of Thessaly, Greece, one of the country’s most important agronomic zones. Two possible scenarios were used for estimation of future climatic conditions, which were based on greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Three time periods were selected: the reference past period 1981–2000 for comparison, and the future periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. Based on soil characteristics, past and future climate conditions, type of land uses, and land management prevailing in the study area, the Environmentally Sensitive to desertification Areas (ESAs) were assessed for each period using the MEDALUS-ESAI index. Soil losses derived by water and tillage erosion were also assessed for the future periods using existing empirical equations. Furthermore, primary soil salinization risk was assessed using an algorithm of individual indicators related to the natural environment or socio-economic characteristics. The obtained data by both climatic scenarios predicted increases in mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature. Concerning annual precipitation, reductions are generally expected for the three study sites. Desertification risk in the future is expected to increase in comparison to the reference period. Soil losses are estimated to be more important in sloping areas, due especially to tillage erosion in at least one study site. Primary salinization risk is expected to be higher in one study site and in soils under poorly drainage conditions.