Rising Incidence of Non-Cardia Gastric Cancer among Young Women in the United States, 2000–2018: A Time-Trend Analysis Using the USCS Database

Abstract

Introduction: Although the global incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) is decreasing, there are limited data on sex-specific incidence in the United States. This study aimed to investigate time trends of NCGC from the SEER database to externally validate findings in a SEER-independent national database, and to further assess trends among subpopulations. Methods: Age-adjusted incidence rates of NCGC were obtained from the SEER database from 2000 to 2018. We used joinpoint models to calculate average annual percentage change (AAPC) to determine sex-specific trends among older (≥55 years) and younger adults (15–54 years). Using the same methodology, findings were then externally validated using SEER-independent data from the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR). Stratified analyses by race, histopathology, and staging at diagnosis were also conducted in younger adults. Results: Overall, there were 169,828 diagnoses of NCGC from both independent databases during the period 2000–2018. In SEER, among those <55 years, incidence increased at a higher rate in women (AAPC = 3.22%, p < 0.01) than men (AAPC = 1.51%, p = 0.03), with non-parallel trends (p = 0.02), while a decreasing trend was seen in both men (AAPC = −2.16%, p < 0.01) and women (AAPC = −1.37%, p < 0.01) of the ≥55 years group. Validation analysis of the SEER-independent NPCR database from 2001 to 2018 showed similar findings. Further stratified analyses showed that incidence is disproportionately increasing in young non-Hispanic White women [AAPC = 2.28%, p < 0.01] while remaining stable in their counterpart men [AAPC = 0.58%, p = 0.24] with non-parallel trends (p = 0.04). This pattern was not observed in other race groups. Conclusion: NCGC incidence has been increasing at a greater rate in younger women compared to counterpart men. This disproportionate increase was mainly seen in young non-Hispanic White women. Future studies should investigate the etiologies of these trends.