Delta Radiomic Analysis of Mesorectum to Predict Treatment Response and Prognosis in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study is to evaluate the delta radiomics approach based on mesorectal radiomic features to develop a model for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) and 2-year disease-free survival (2yDFS) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Methods: Pre- and post-nCRT MRIs of LARC patients treated at a single institution from May 2008 to November 2016 were retrospectively collected. Radiomic features were extracted from the GTV and mesorectum. The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the features in predicting pCR and 2yDFS. Results: Out of 203 LARC patients, a total of 565 variables were evaluated. The best performing pCR prediction model was based on two GTV features with an AUC of 0.80 in the training set and 0.69 in the validation set. The best performing 2yDFS prediction model was based on one GTV and two mesorectal features with an AUC of 0.79 in the training set and 0.70 in the validation set. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest a possible role for delta radiomics based on mesorectal features in the prediction of 2yDFS in patients with LARC.