A Radiomics-Clinical Model Predicts Overall Survival of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Immunotherapy: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are a great breakthrough in cancer treatments and provide improved long-term survival in a subset of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, prognostic and predictive biomarkers of immunotherapy still remain an unmet clinical need. In this work, we aim to leverage imaging data and clinical variables to develop survival risk models among advanced NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy. Methods: This retrospective study includes a total of 385 patients from two institutions who were treated with ICIs. Radiomics features extracted from pretreatment CT scans were used to build predictive models. The objectives were to predict overall survival (OS) along with building a classifier for short- and long-term survival groups. We employed the XGBoost learning method to build radiomics and integrated clinical-radiomics predictive models. Feature selection and model building were developed and validated on a multicenter cohort. Results: We developed parsimonious models that were associated with OS and a classifier for short- and long-term survivor groups. The concordance indices (C-index) of the radiomics model were 0.61 and 0.57 to predict OS in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. While the area under the curve (AUC) values of the radiomic models for short- and long-term groups were found to be 0.65 and 0.58 in the discovery and validation cohorts. The accuracy of the combined radiomics-clinical model resulted in 0.63 and 0.62 to predict OS and in 0.77 and 0.62 to classify the survival groups in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions: We developed and validated novel radiomics and integrated radiomics-clinical survival models among NSCLC patients treated with ICIs. This model has important translational implications, which can be used to identify a subset of patients who are not likely to benefit from immunotherapy. The developed imaging biomarkers may allow early prediction of low-group survivors, though additional validation of these radiomics models is warranted.