Refining Risk Criteria May Substantially Reduce Unnecessary Additional Surgeries after Local Resection of T1 Colorectal Cancer

Abstract

Background: The low positive predictive value for lymph node metastases (LNM) of common practice risk criteria (CPRC) in T1 colorectal carcinoma (CRC) leads to manyunnecessary additional surgeries following local resection. This study aimed to identify criteria that may improve on the CPRC. Methods: Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association of diverse variables with LNM or ‘poor outcome’ (LNM and/or distant metastases and/or recurrence) in a single center T1 CRC cohort. The diagnostic capacity of the set of variables obtained was compared with that of the CPRC. Results: The study comprised 161 cases. Poorly differentiated clusters (PDC) and tumor budding grade > 1 (TB > 1) were the only independent variables associated with LNM. The area under the curve (AUC) for these criteria was 0.808 (CI 95% 0.717–0.880) compared to 0.582 (CI 95% 0.479–0.680) for CPRC. TB > 1 and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were independently associated with ‘poor outcome’, with an AUC of 0.801 (CI 95% 0.731–0.859), while the AUC for CPRC was 0.691 (CI 95% 0.603–0.752). TB > 1, combined either with PDC or LVI, would reduce false positives between 41.5% and 45% without significantly increasing false negatives. Conclusions: Indicating additional surgery in T1 CRC only when either TB > 1, PDC, or LVI are present could reduce unnecessary surgeries significantly.