Radiomics-Based Computed Tomography Urogram Approach for the Prediction of Survival and Recurrence in Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

Abstract

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a rare and aggressive malignancy with a poor prognosis. The accurate prediction of survival and recurrence in UTUC is crucial for effective risk stratification and guiding therapeutic decisions. Models combining radiomics and clinicopathological data features derived from computed tomographic urograms (CTUs) can be a way to predict survival and recurrence in UTUC. Thus, preoperative CTUs and clinical data were analyzed from 106 UTUC patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy. Radiomics features were extracted from segmented tumors, and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method was used to select the most relevant features. Multivariable Cox models combining radiomics features and clinical factors were developed to predict the survival and recurrence. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) was applied to evaluate the performance and survival distribution analyses were assessed by a Kaplan–Meier analysis. The significant outcome predictors were identified by multivariable Cox models. The combined model achieved a superior predictive accuracy (C-index: 0.73) and higher recurrence prediction (C-index: 0.84). The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed significant differences in the survival (p < 0.0001) and recurrence (p < 0.002) probabilities for the combined datasets. The CTU-based radiomics models effectively predicted survival and recurrence in the UTUC patients, and enhanced the prognostic performance by combining radiomics features with clinical factors.