Development and Assessment of Nomogram Based on AFP Response for Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Abstract

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been increasingly used to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Prognostic biomarkers are an unmet need. We aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with unresectable HCC receiving ICIs therapy. Methods: A total of 120 patients with unresectable HCC receiving ICIs treatment were enrolled in this study. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 84) and a validation set (n = 36) in a 7:3 ratio. Clinical characteristics were retrospectively analyzed. Serum α-fetoprotein protein (AFP) response was defined as a decline of ≥20% in AFP levels within the initial eight weeks of treatment. Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses were used to select relevant variables and construct the nomogram. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to determine the performance of the model. Kaplan–Meier analysis with the log-rank test was used to compare different risk groups. Results: The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 7.7 months. In the multivariate Cox analysis, the presence of extrahepatic metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–4.27, p < 0.05), white blood cell count (HR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.02–11.88, p < 0.05) and AFP response (HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.18–0.95, p < 0.05) independently predicted PFS. A nomogram for PFS was established with AUCs of 0.79 and 0.70 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The median PFS of the high- and low-risk subgroups was 3.5 and 11.7 months, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The nomogram could predict PFS in patients with unresectable HCC receiving ICIs treatment and further help decision making in daily clinical practice.