Lung-Heart Outcomes and Mortality through the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic in a Prospective Cohort of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Patients

Abstract

We investigated lung-heart toxicity and mortality in 123 women with stage I-II breast cancer enrolled in 2007–2011 in a prospective trial of adjuvant radiotherapy (TomoBreast). We were concerned whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected the outcomes. All patients were analyzed as a single cohort. Lung-heart status was reverse-scored as freedom from adverse-events (fAE) on a 1–5 scale. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and pulmonary function tests were untransformed. Statistical analyses applied least-square regression to calendar-year aggregated data. The significance of outliers was determined using the Dixon and the Grubbs corrected tests. At 12.0 years median follow-up, 103 patients remained alive; 10-years overall survival was 87.8%. In 2007–2019, 15 patients died, of whom 11 were cancer-related deaths. In 2020, five patients died, none of whom from cancer. fAE and lung-heart function declined gradually over a decade through 2019, but deteriorated markedly in 2020: fAE dipped significantly from 4.6–4.6 to 4.3–4.2; LVEF dipped to 58.4% versus the expected 60.3% (PDixon = 0.021, PGrubbs = 0.054); forced vital capacity dipped to 2.4 L vs. 2.6 L (PDixon = 0.043, PGrubbs = 0.181); carbon-monoxide diffusing capacity dipped to 12.6 mL/min/mmHg vs. 15.2 (PDixon = 0.008, PGrubbs = 0.006). In conclusion, excess non-cancer mortality was observed in 2020. Deaths in that year totaled one-third of the deaths in the previous decade, and revealed observable lung-heart deterioration.