A Sensitivity and Robustness Analysis of GPR and ANN for High-Performance Concrete Compressive Strength Prediction Using a Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the sensitivity and robustness of two Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, namely Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with five different kernels (Matern32, Matern52, Exponential, Squared Exponential, and Rational Quadratic) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) using a Monte Carlo simulation for prediction of High-Performance Concrete (HPC) compressive strength. To this purpose, 1030 samples were collected, including eight input parameters (contents of cement, blast furnace slag, fly ash, water, superplasticizer, coarse aggregates, fine aggregates, and concrete age) and an output parameter (the compressive strength) to generate the training and testing datasets. The proposed AI models were validated using several standard criteria, namely coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To analyze the sensitivity and robustness of the models, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 500 runs. The results showed that the GPR using the Matern32 kernel function outperforms others. In addition, the sensitivity analysis showed that the content of cement and the testing age of the HPC were the most sensitive and important factors for the prediction of HPC compressive strength. In short, this study might help in selecting suitable AI models and appropriate input parameters for accurate and quick estimation of the HPC compressive strength.