An Ensemble Framework to Investigate Wind Energy Sustainability Considering Climate Change Impacts

Abstract

Wind power is a key element for future renewable energy resources and plays a vital role in sustainable development. Global warming and future climate conditions are going to impact many atmospheric, oceanic, and earth systems. In this study, impacts of climate change on wind power resources under future climatic conditions are evaluated for the Persian Gulf to explore the sustainability of this kind of energy for present and future developments. To that end, three regional climate models obtained from coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CRODEX), including daily simulations of near-surface wind speeds for a 20-year period in the present and future, were considered. Prior to computing the wind power at turbine hub-height, historical simulations of CORDEX were evaluated versus ERA-Interim wind outputs to determine the accuracy of the regional climate models. An attempt was made to build an ensemble model from available models by assigning weights to the models based on their merits. Subsequently, the wind power at the turbine hub-height was computed for historical and future periods to detect the impacts of climate change. Some points with a relatively high energy potential were selected as energy hotspots for further investigations. The results revealed that the mean annual wind power over the study area changed remarkably, which is of great importance for sustainable developments. Moreover, the results of the directional investigations showed roughly the same directional distribution for the future period as the past.