Impact of Boundary Conditions Dynamics on Groundwater Budget in the Campania Region (Italy)

Abstract

Groundwater budgets and fluxes are affected by human activities and climate change. Numerical models are cost-effective tools to investigate the different components of the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a groundwater flow model of the unconfined aquifers of the Campania region (Italy) has been developed and calibrated in Processing Modflow 11, resulting in an accurate assessment of groundwater fluxes and their trends over fifteen years (2000–2015). The model was implemented using a high-resolution grid to capture small hydrogeological features such as wells and rivers and informed by time variable datasets used as boundary conditions (i.e., river and sea levels, aquifer recharge, evapotranspiration, and discharge from adjacent systems). Good calibration and validation performances were achieved for piezometric heads (R2 = 0.958). A set of scenarios was developed using constant boundary conditions (i.e., constant sea-level BC, uniform extinction depth BC), and the outputs were compared, quantitively assessing differences in groundwater fluxes. Simulations pointed out that using time series to inform boundary conditions in the model does not always result in a significant change in the computed fluxes. Overall, non-uniform extinction depth was the most influential condition, while both rivers and sea level conditions barely affected groundwater budgets. In addition, results highlighted the need for an accurate estimation of spatiotemporal variations of both recharge and evapotranspiration, due to their strong seasonal variability and their massive contribution to the hydrogeological cycle. Finally, a marked increase of evapotranspiration fluxes controlled by interannual variability of precipitation and atmospheric temperatures has been quantified over the modelled period.