Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The accurate estimation of a regional ecosystem’s carbon storage and the exploration of its spatial distribution and influencing factors are of great significance for ecosystem carbon sink function enhancements and management. Using the Yellow River Basin as the study area, we assessed the changes in regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage through geographically weighted regression modeling based on a large number of measured sample sites, explored the main influencing factors through geographic probe analysis, and predicted the carbon sequestration potentials under different scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The results showed that (1) the total carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin in 2020 was about 8.84 × 109 t. Above-ground biological carbon storage, below-ground biological carbon storage, and soil carbon storage accounted for 6.39%, 5.07%, and 89.70% of the total ecosystem carbon storage, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the basin showed a trend in decreasing and then increasing, and the carbon storage in the west was larger than in the east and larger in the south than in the north. (2) Forest ecosystem was the main contributor to the increase in carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation were the main factors influencing the spatial pattern of carbon storage. (3) The ecological conservation scenario had the best carbon gain effect among the four future development scenarios, and appropriate ecological conservation policies could be formulated based on this scenario in the future to help achieve the goals of carbon sequestration and sink increase.